Is trading futures or speculative shares just gambling?

I am interested in trading commodities futures but only if I am sure that success is based on skill, intelligence and/or preperation. If I fail because I lack any of these I won't mind too much. But is success based mostly on luck?





What about day trading, is this gambling? Do you need luck to succeed or just preperation?|||Knowledge, intelligence, and vigilance will maximize your chances for success; however, since a lot of players in the market out there are either fickle or tend to have knee-jerk reactions to events that may affect the markets, there will always be a degree of risk. Success can never be assured because of the factors beyond your control, but, again, you can do well if you keep on top of things (monitoring activiy, factors, etc.) continuously.





As to day trading, you have a little more control over your chances for success. The same rules apply--you need to be vigilant.





My recommendation would be to start modestly and see how you do, then make a judgement as to whether you should abandon that venture or increase your activity.





Good luck!|||You need lots of preparation. It is a mathematical process. You can work out probabilities by looking at historical data. You can pitch your risk exposure by this data. Of course it can still go wrong after all this (a la LTCM)|||Trading is three factors;


Technical Analysis


Money Management


Psychology





If you don't have position sizing. Manage Greed, Fear %26amp; indicision..... having "wins" will not save you from losing money. There is a reason a very small percentage of traders that make money. It's not luck. It's skill. It takes time.





Read;


Disiplined Trader, Douglas


Mastering The Trade, Carter


Trading In the Zone, Douglas


Trading For A living; Elder





These are a "start" of a long learning curve.





Also check out: www.TraderInterviews.com





Day Trading, Swing Trading %26amp; Position Trading can take a lot of the same skills. There is greater risk/reward with a shorter time horizon. Many of the skills are the same.





I'm a Swing Trader that sometimes day trades (my prefrence). My goals include;


50% win/loss rate


3/1 risk reward ratio





At present I'm close to getting 45%-50% of my trades correct.


My win/loss ratio is a little below 2/1. My biggest concentration (now) is making sure my position sizing and risk/reward ratios improve. I am making money. Why..... because my biggest goal is to manage my losses/risk.|||You might as well load the gun. You have what they call stinkin' thinkin'. And I mean well. Its like the lottery, you never win. Lottery's are a tax on the poor!! You got money to lose, and surely you will, step out side the door and throw it in the wind. I was shakin' just reading your question. Put your money in MUTUAL FUND. {ROTH IRA} and the rest in plain funds. Boy I really feel for you.. I can feel you have the bug....|||gamblings good texus holdem any one bring it|||Success is mostly based on luck and is mostly short-lived. This is true for professional traders as much as for amateurs. The reasons are varied, but among the top are the following:





- as an outsider you are at a real disadvantage compared to investment banks which have lots of resources and expertise. the so called "smart money."





- financial asset prices are often random and unpredictable. There are two terms bandied around for this: "efficient markets" and "random walks."





I once asked the same question to the director of the quant group of one of the large investment banks on Wall Street. His answer was simply: "Trading is a waste of time. The markets are a random walk. By the time you buy, the smart money has already sold."





This is from someone IN THE BUSINESS. Someone who makes a living by designing models to analyze stock prices, and either trades these models or sells them to other people for trading purposes.





You need to pay attention to words such as those coming from someone like that. Furthermore, this particular individual is highly talented and smart, and well respected among a lot of people. Not someone you can just dismiss easily.





You can probably benefit from reading some books on the subject. I think you would enjoy the following:





The Traders by Sonny Kleinfeld.


Introduction to Financial Mathematics by Paul Wilmott.





The first will give you an idea of what it's like on the floor of the exhanges. The author was a journalist who decided to spend a few months in the pits and interview a bunch of professional traders.





The second is a non mathematical introduction to the pricing of financial derivatives, which is very important.





Furthermore, I've answered a lot of question like this on yahoo, and have compiled my answers on the following website:





http://commonsensetrading . googlepages . com





I did this as a way to help novices and beginners get a REALISTIC idea of what's going on, instead of all the bs that normally gets thrown at you from so many sources.





Bottom line: I do not recommend trading. But if you are going to trade, then first you need to be aware of what you're getting into, and second you there are some simple guidelines you can follow to MINIMIZE the amount of damage you do to yourself.





I have a lot of experience. Feel free to email me, I can answer questions, give you my opinion, as time permits. I do this without requesting compensation, so my responsiveness is based on my availability. commonsensetrading@gmail.com